Russian Oil Imports to India Grow at 96% CAGR, Now Account for 35% of Crude Basket

India’s crude oil sourcing is undergoing a major realignment, with Russian oil imports growing at a 96% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years. As of FY25, Russian crude constitutes 35% of India’s total oil imports, a sharp rise from just 2% in FY20, according to the latest Rubix Industry Insights report. This surge is driven by cost advantages and the use of alternate transport corridors that avoid high-risk zones like the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, India’s reliance on Middle Eastern suppliers has declined, prompting a shift in energy trade dynamics. In parallel, India is working to protect its downstream trade amid global sanctions, especially from the US and EU. The country’s petroleum product exports were valued at USD 44.4 billion in FY25, with major markets including the Netherlands, UAE, and Singapore. India now ranks as the seventh-largest global exporter of refined petroleum. Despite increasing demand—expected to rise from 5.64 million barrels/day in 2024 to 6.66 million barrels/day by 2030—domestic crude production has dropped from 32.2 MMT in FY20 to 28.7 MMT in FY25, raising import dependency to 88.2%. India’s refining capacity stands at 257 MMTPA across 23 refineries, the fourth largest globally, with plans to expand to 309.5 MMTPA by 2030, led by investments from IOCL, BPCL, and HPCL. In the natural gas segment, demand reached 71 BCM in FY25, with 50% met via LNG imports. The US has overtaken the UAE as India’s second-largest LNG supplier, driven by policy relaxations and long-term contracts. India aims to increase natural gas’s share in the energy mix to 15% by 2030, supported by pipeline expansions and new regasification infrastructure.Disclaimer: PolyMart does not offer guarantees regarding the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the information provided on its platform. Users are advised to independently verify any data before relying on it for decision-making purposes.